The circuits have now split two to one against the platforms, and the question is in front of the Supreme Court. The Third Circuit held in April 2026 that Kalshi's sports event contracts are likely "swaps" whose regulation Congress left to the CFTC. The Ninth Circuit disagreed on August 28 (KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad), and on September 25 the Sixth Circuit ruled for Ohio and Tennessee, vacating the injunction Tennessee's federal court had granted Kalshi. New Jersey petitioned for certiorari on September 2 (No. 26-299; Kalshi's response is due November 9), and Robinhood and Crypto.com filed petitions of their own. The whole arc is on the path to the Supreme Court.

The two losses are not the same loss. The Ninth Circuit agreed with the Third that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of futures trading, and split only on whether sports contracts are the kind of instrument the Act covers. The Sixth Circuit went further: it held that even if the contracts were swaps, the Act would not preempt state gambling law at all. All three are preliminary-injunction decisions rather than final judgments; the one final merits ruling so far came from a federal judge in Utah, now on appeal to the Tenth Circuit. The CFTC told the Ninth Circuit on September 24 that it expects its revised Rule 40.11, which governs which event contracts exchanges may list, to be final within two months.

September ran against the platforms almost everywhere. A federal judge in Iowa denied Kalshi an injunction, putting the question before the Eighth Circuit for the first time. Michigan turned its restraining order against Kalshi into a preliminary injunction with a $500,000-a-day penalty, and Robinhood and Coinbase agreed to leave the state's sports market while their appeals run. The Ninth Circuit held, in a separate published opinion, that sports contracts entered from tribal land are gaming the California tribes can stop under federal Indian-gaming law. New York and Connecticut's injunction appeals are still waiting on a Second Circuit panel, and the Fourth Circuit has not decided Maryland.

The enforcement map is also widening. Connecticut sent cease-and-desist orders to nine more platforms on September 10 and subpoenaed their vendors; Missouri gave six platforms thirty days to stop, a window that closes October 16 and 17; New York sued Polymarket US on September 24; and Underdog filed six preemption suits in a week. Two developments still cut the other way: Minnesota's statutory ban on prediction-market platforms is preliminarily enjoined as to CFTC-registered exchanges, and North Carolina enacted a July 2026 law that recognizes the CFTC's authority and taxes trading-fee revenue rather than banning the platforms.

Zoom into the docket list and it turns granular and contradictory: the same company can operate freely in one state, be blocked by a judge in the next, and face a fresh lawsuit in a third. Read this as a dated snapshot: nearly every case below is preliminary and under appeal, and it changes week to week. This is informational, not legal advice — always verify a venue's current, location-specific eligibility before relying on it.