Prediction Market Guides & Analysis
In-depth, evergreen guides to prediction markets — how they work, how to read the odds, how the platforms differ, and what the research says — for researchers, reporters, and analysts.
What Is a Prediction Market?
How they work, why they matter for forecasting, the major platforms, and where they fall short.
How to Read Prediction Market Odds
Price is a probability in cents — but only if you read it right. The numbers to check, and the mistakes to avoid.
Prediction Markets vs. Polls: Which Is Actually More Accurate?
What the research actually shows about forecasting accuracy, calibration, and where each method wins and fails.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: How the Two Biggest Prediction Markets Differ
Regulation, structure, mechanics, fees, data, and audience — an even-handed comparison for analysts and reporters.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
Federal approval, the state-level fights, and what is still unsettled. Informational, not legal advice.
Every CFTC-Regulated Prediction Market
The complete registry of designated exchanges, their clearing houses, and registration status — verified against CFTC filings.
Prediction Market Data: Where It Comes From and How to Read It
A field guide to the numbers behind prediction markets — what each metric means, where the traps are, and how to cite a figure with confidence.
Sports Betting vs. Prediction Markets
Same surface, different machine underneath: the counterparty, the regulator, and the information signal that actually separate the two.
Robinhood Prediction Markets, Explained
What Robinhood offers, how the routing to CFTC exchanges works, and what Rothera really is.
Open Interest vs. Volume in Prediction Markets
Two numbers, endlessly confused. Volume is a flow; open interest is a level. What each measures, how a single trade moves them, and which one to trust.