Prediction Market Glossary
A plain-English glossary of prediction-market terms — implied probability, open interest, volume, settlement, and more — for researchers, reporters, and analysts.
Bid, ask, and spreadBest buy price, best sell price, and the gap between them.
Binary (Yes/No) contractThe basic unit: pays $1 if a specific outcome happens, $0 if not.
CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)The independent federal agency that regulates U.S. derivatives markets, including prediction-market exchanges.
CFTC-regulated exchangeA prediction market authorized and overseen by the U.S. CFTC.
Combo (parlay)A single contract that pays only if every one of its legs resolves as specified.
Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA)Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, formerly Nadex, first designated in 2004.
Designated contract market (DCM)An exchange the CFTC has approved to list futures, options and event contracts, including for retail traders.
DKeX (Railbird Exchange)DraftKings' CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, registered as Railbird Exchange, LLC.
Event contractA derivative that pays out based on whether a specified event happens.
Face valueA contract counted at its full payout, usually $1. The basis for every volume figure on TickerTracker.
Implied probabilityThe probability of an outcome implied by its market price.
KalshiA CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction-market exchange.
Last priceThe price of the most recent trade, read as an implied probability.
LiquidityHow easily contracts can be traded without moving the price.
Ludlow ExchangeThe CFTC-designated contract market behind the Novig prediction exchange.
Market, event, and OutcomeThe three levels TickerTracker uses to organize prediction-market data.
Multi-outcome marketA market with many possible outcomes where one wins.
Mutually exclusive marketA market where exactly one outcome wins; prices sum to about 100%.
Notional valueThe technical name for face value — a contract counted at its $1 payout. On TickerTracker, volume is reported in notional dollars.
NovigA sports prediction exchange that trades through its CFTC-designated exchange, Ludlow Exchange, LLC.
Open interestThe number of contracts currently held open — money at stake right now.
Order bookThe live list of outstanding buy and sell orders by price.
PolymarketA large blockchain-based prediction market on Polygon, priced in USDC.
Polymarket US (PMUS)A separate, CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange, distinct from global Polymarket.
Prediction marketA market where contract prices reflect the odds of a future event.
Preemption (CEA preemption)The principle that federal law overrides conflicting state law, and the core of the federal-vs-state prediction-market fight.
ProphetXA CFTC-regulated sports event-contract exchange that lists, clears and settles its own contracts.
Restricted jurisdictionA place where a platform does not offer some or all of its contracts, usually because of a court order or state law.
RotheraA CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse for event contracts, majority-owned by a Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture.
Self-certificationHow a CFTC-regulated exchange lists a new contract: it certifies compliance rather than waiting for approval.
Settlement (resolution)Resolving a market once the event is decided; winners pay $1, losers $0.
Underdog Exchange (UDX)Underdog's CFTC-regulated sports event-contract exchange, registered under the Aristotle Exchange entities.
VolumeThe face value of contracts traded, in dollars — every contract counted at its $1 payout, regardless of price.