Implied probability

Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome as estimated by its market price. Since a typical prediction-market contract settles at $1 (100¢) if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not, a contract trading at 65¢ implies roughly a 65% chance. It is the headline number most people mean when they refer to "the odds" on a market, and it updates continuously as new trades move the price.

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