How This Market Settles

Tracks what the Federal Open Market Committee decides on the federal funds rate at each scheduled Fed meeting — hold, or a rate hike or cut of a given size.

Settles on

Settles on the FOMC's rate decision as published by the Federal Reserve. Markets for a given meeting are mutually exclusive — only one rate-change bucket can resolve Yes; if the Fed cuts 50bps, the 50bps market resolves Yes and the 25bps market resolves No.

Structure

One event per scheduled FOMC meeting, with a separate Yes/No market for each possible outcome (hold, 25bps, 50bps, etc.). Markets close the afternoon of the decision.

Source

Kalshi contract terms — Fed meeting (PDF)

Settlement terms checked against Kalshi's contract terms on 2026-09-25.

mutually exclusive market · settlement