Kalshi2026 Senate

Texas Senate Race 2026

Kalshi has 16 events on the 2026 Texas Senate race, with $64,562,911 in lifetime volume across 112 contracts. On the “Texas Senate winner?” market the implied probability is 58% for James Talarico and 43% for Ken Paxton, based on each contract's trading range on Sep 24, 2026. “Texas Republican Senate nominee?” settled Yes on Ken Paxton. “Texas Democratic Senate nominee?” settled Yes on James Talarico.

Lifetime volume

$64,562,911

Contracts

112

Kalshi events

Highest implied

58%

James Talarico

Texas Senate winner?

SENATETX-26OpenVolume $14,661,373Event page Series hub

Ken PaxtonRep

43% $8,541,287

James TalaricoDem

58% $6,120,085

Implied probability: midpoint of each contract's trading range on Sep 24, 2026.

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

KXSENATETXR-26SettledVolume $18,354,508Event page Series hub

Ken PaxtonSettled Yes

$8,726,274

John CornynSettled No

$8,699,776

Wesley HuntSettled No

$882,598

Beth Van DuyneSettled No

$40,022

Dawn BuckinghamSettled No

$5,839

Texas Democratic Senate nominee?

KXSENATETXD-26SettledVolume $14,628,466Event page Series hub

Jasmine CrockettSettled No

$8,528,627

James TalaricoSettled Yes

$5,839,072

Colin AllredSettled No

$139,177

Beto O'RourkeSettled No

$79,392

Julián CastroSettled No

$31,756

Ahmad HassanSettled No

$4,058

Roland GutierrezSettled No

$3,123

Terry VirtsSettled No

$1,652

Carl ShermanSettled No

$624

Veronica EscobarSettled No

$387

Scott KellySettled No

$320

Nathan JohnsonSettled No

$278

Texas Senate Democratic primary margin of victory?

KXTXSENDPRIMARYMOV-26MAR03SettledVolume $5,478,516Event page Series hub

Talarico, 3-6%Settled No

$1,178,675

Talarico, 6-9%Settled Yes

$1,169,960

Talarico, 9-12%Settled No

$731,224

Talarico, 12-15%Settled No

$439,062

Talarico, 0-3%Settled No

$439,050

Talarico, 15-18%Settled No

$382,474

Crockett, 3-6%Settled No

$319,955

Talarico, 18% and aboveSettled No

$303,683

Crockett, 0-3%Settled No

$278,668

Jasmine Crockett, 6-9%Settled No

$124,198

Crockett, 9% and aboveSettled No

$111,567

Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout?

KXTXSENATEDEMTURNOUT-26MAR03SettledVolume $4,302,583Event page Series hub

Above 2,400,000Settled No

$2,341,868

Above 2,300,000Settled Yes

$480,082

Above 2,500,000Settled No

$470,930

Above 2,700,000Settled No

$219,539

Above 2,600,000Settled No

$175,848

Above 2,200,000Settled Yes

$168,651

Above 2,800,000Settled No

$165,369

Above 2,000,000Settled Yes

$94,127

Above 3,200,000Settled No

$45,549

Above 2,900,000Settled No

$44,361

Above 1,600,000Settled Yes

$35,630

Above 3,000,000Settled No

$16,124

Above 3,100,000Settled No

$15,780

Above 1,800,000Settled Yes

$11,800

Above 1,500,000Settled Yes

$6,579

Above 800,000Settled Yes

$3,922

Above 1,300,000Settled Yes

$2,502

Above 1,400,000Settled Yes

$1,502

Above 1,200,000Settled Yes

$1,152

Above 900,000Settled Yes

$793

Above 1,000,000Settled Yes

$322

Above 1,100,000Settled Yes

$153

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26OpenVolume $4,065,577Event page Series hub

Ken Paxton, 20%+

$1,303,308

Ken Paxton, 15-20%

$796,232

Ken Paxton, 10-15%

$630,432

Ken Paxton, 5-10%

$451,367

Ken Paxton, 0-5%

$346,726

John Cornyn, 0-5%

$215,993

John Cornyn, 5-10%

$111,112

John Cornyn, 10-15%

$82,125

John Cornyn, 20%+

$67,862

John Cornyn, 15-20%

$60,418

Texas Senate primary: which counties will Talarico win?

KXTALARICOPRIMARYCOUNTIES-26SettledVolume $683,006Event page Series hub

DallasSettled No

$377,080

HarrisSettled No

$163,574

TarrantSettled No

$125,954

HidalgoSettled Yes

$8,174

BexarSettled Yes

$4,015

TravisSettled Yes

$2,157

El PasoSettled Yes

$2,052

Will a candidate win outright in the Texas Republican Senate primary?

KXTEXASGOP1ROUND-26MAR03SettledVolume $595,133Event page Series hub

First-round winnerSettled No

$595,133

Texas Senate Republican primary turnout?

KXTXSENATEGOPTURNOUT-26MAR03SettledVolume $478,062Event page Series hub

Above 2,200,000Settled No

$207,715

Above 2,300,000Settled No

$149,009

Above 2,100,000Settled Yes

$47,852

Above 2,500,000Settled No

$39,788

Above 2,400,000Settled No

$25,290

Above 2,600,000Settled No

$3,885

Above 2,700,000Settled No

$2,906

Above 2,000,000Settled Yes

$1,462

Above 1,600,000Settled Yes

$100

Above 1,800,000Settled Yes

$55

Texas Senate primary: Democrats have higher turnout than Republicans?

KXTXSENATETURNOUTGOPMINUSDEM-26NOV03SettledVolume $456,273Event page Series hub

YesSettled Yes

$456,273

Texas Senate Republican primary margin of victory?

KXTXSENRPRIMARYMOV-26MAR03SettledVolume $391,346Event page Series hub

Cornyn, 0-3%Settled Yes

$72,844

Paxton, 0-3%Settled No

$68,958

Paxton, 3-6%Settled No

$64,001

Paxton, 9%+Settled No

$58,860

Cornyn, 3-6%Settled No

$49,918

Paxton, 6-9%Settled No

$48,136

Cornyn, 6-9%Settled No

$12,972

Cornyn, 9%+Settled No

$12,199

Hunt, 0%+Settled No

$3,458

2nd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?

KXTXRSEN2ND-26MAR03-2OpenVolume $281,992Event page Series hub

KXTXRSEN2ND-26MAR03-2-JCORRep

$149,305

KXTXRSEN2ND-26MAR03-2-KPAXRep

$93,403

KXTXRSEN2ND-26MAR03-2-WHUNRep

$39,284

3rd place in first round of Texas Senate Republican primary?

KXTXRSEN3RD-26MAR03-3OpenVolume $83,767Event page Series hub

KXTXRSEN3RD-26MAR03-3-WHUNRep

$49,868

KXTXRSEN3RD-26MAR03-3-JCORRep

$29,142

KXTXRSEN3RD-26MAR03-3-KPAXRep

$4,757

Texas Senate primary: which counties will Paxton win?

KXPAXTONPRIMARYCOUNTIES-26SettledVolume $63,016Event page Series hub

TarrantSettled No

$14,016

DentonSettled No

$13,174

HaysSettled No

$11,418

HarrisSettled No

$7,500

BexarSettled No

$6,427

DallasSettled No

$5,643

TravisSettled No

$2,928

HidalgoSettled No

$1,910

Will a candidate win outright in the Texas Democratic Senate primary?

KXTEXASDEM1ROUND-26MAR03SettledVolume $26,499Event page Series hub

First-round winnerSettled Yes

$26,499

Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win?

KXGENERALCOUNTY-SENATETX-26OpenVolume $12,794Event page Series hub

Collin

$4,792

Bell

$2,300

Denton

$2,033

Brazoria

$1,471

Bastrop

$896

Fort Bend

$828

Tarrant

$476