Kalshi2026 Senate

South Carolina Senate Race 2026

Kalshi has 11 events on the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, with $49,369,275 in lifetime volume across 66 contracts. On the “South Carolina Senate winner?” market the implied probability is 62% for the Democratic party and 37% for the Republican party, based on each contract's trading range on Nov 3, 2026. “South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?” settled Yes on Darline Graham Nordone.

Lifetime volume

$49,369,275

Contracts

66

Kalshi events

11

Highest implied

62%

Democratic party

South Carolina Senate winner?

SENATESC-26OpenVolume $22,038,951Event pageSeries hub
1
Republican party
37% $11,109,457
2
Democratic party
62% $10,929,494

Implied probability: midpoint of each contract's trading range on Nov 3, 2026.

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

KXSCRSENS-26SettledVolume $25,724,483Event pageSeries hub
1
Darline Graham NordoneSettled Yes
$12,029,953
2
Ralph NormanSettled No
$10,243,717
3
Russell FrySettled No
$1,502,711
4
Mark SanfordSettled No
$1,304,277
5
Trey GowdySettled No
$224,569
6
Pamela EvetteSettled No
$133,250
7
Mark LynchSettled No
$115,352
8
Nancy MaceSettled No
$102,902
9
Nikki HaleySettled No
$37,552
10
Henry McMasterSettled No
$26,984
11
Scott BessentSettled No
$3,216

South Carolina Republican Senate nominee?

KXSENATESCR-26OpenVolume $977,820Event pageSeries hub
1
Lindsey Graham
$537,066
2
Mark Lynch
$369,689
3
Paul Dans
$65,374
4
Thomas Murphy
$5,691

Who will run for South Carolina Senate?

KXSCRSENSRUN-26OpenVolume $135,497Event pageSeries hub
1
Darline Graham NordoneRep
$41,576
2
Russell FryRep
$20,303
3
Ralph NormanRep
$20,068
4
Nancy MaceRep
$18,319
5
Pamela EvetteRep
$12,011
6
Trey GowdyRep
$7,620
7
Scott BessentRep
$5,689
8
Henry McMasterRep
$3,676
9
Mark LynchRepSettled Yes
$3,302
10
Nikki HaleyRep
$2,934

South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?

KXGRAHAMRUNOFFCOUNTIES-26SettledVolume $125,109Event pageSeries hub
1
CharlestonSettled Yes
$41,509
2
LancasterSettled Yes
$14,261
3
OconeeSettled No
$13,072
4
NewberrySettled No
$10,744
5
LexingtonSettled Yes
$10,235
6
SpartanburgSettled No
$8,354
7
HorrySettled Yes
$6,029
8
AndersonSettled No
$5,897
9
YorkSettled No
$5,392
10
GreenvilleSettled No
$4,827
11
LaurensSettled No
$2,545
12
PickensSettled No
$2,243

South Carolina Senate Republican special primary: who will advance?

KXSCRSENSADVANCE-26AUG11OpenVolume $121,550Event pageSeries hub
1
Mark Sanford
$47,893
2
Darline Graham
$33,657
3
Russell Fry
$31,869
4
Ralph Norman
$8,132

South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: exact place (1st Round)

KXSCRSENS1REXACT-26AUG11OpenVolume $112,474Event pageSeries hub
1
Norman, Fry, Graham
$23,684
2
Graham, Norman, Fry
$20,439
3
Fry, Norman, Graham
$19,398
4
Graham, Fry, Norman
$18,149
5
Fry, Graham, Norman
$15,717
6
Norman, Graham, Fry
$15,086

Will the South Carolina special Republican primary be won outright?

KXSCRSENSOUTRIGHT-26AUG11OpenVolume $64,963Event pageSeries hub
1
First-round winner
$64,963

When will AP call the South Carolina Senate runoff?

KXAPCALLSCSEN-26AUG23OpenVolume $37,093Event pageSeries hub
1
Before 8PM Aug 25
$7,242
2
Before 7:15PM Aug 25
$7,181
3
Before 9PM Aug 25
$6,078
4
Before 10PM Aug 25
$5,327
5
Before 7:30PM Aug 25
$3,174
6
Before Aug 26
$2,551
7
Before 8AM Aug 26
$2,469
8
Before 2AM Aug 26
$2,241
9
Before 8:30PM Aug 25Settled No
$830

South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee?

KXSENATESCD-26OpenVolume $25,074Event pageSeries hub
1
Annie Andrews
$16,020
2
Brandon Brown
$7,836
3
Kyle Freeman
$479
4
Catherine Fleming Bruce
$436
5
Joe Walsh
$303

Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?

KXCLOSERFLSCSEN-26NOV10OpenVolume $6,261Event pageSeries hub
1
South Carolina US Senate
$4,374
2
Florida US Senate
$1,887