Kalshi2026 GovernorCalifornia Governor Race 2026
Kalshi has 15 events on the 2026 California Governor race, with $80,408,233 in lifetime volume across 201 contracts. On the “California Governor winner? (Person)” market the implied probability is 96% for Xavier Becerra and 4% for Steve Hilton, based on each contract's trading range on Sep 24, 2026.
Lifetime volume
$80,408,233
Contracts
201
Kalshi events
15
Highest implied
96%
Xavier Becerra
California Governor winner? (Person)
1
Steve HiltonRep
4%
$9,080,709
2
Xavier BecerraDem
96%
$5,570,504
3
Chad BiancoRep
—
$5,294,883
4
Tom SteyerDem
—
$4,983,988
5
Matt MahanDem
—
$3,630,890
6
Katie PorterDem
—
$2,360,507
7
Eric SwalwellDem
—
$2,356,860
8
Ché AhnRep
—
$1,890,392
9
Kamala HarrisDem
—
$1,591,654
10
Nicole ShanahanIndependent
—
$1,395,810
11
Daniel MercuriRep
—
$1,302,104
12
Butch WareGreen
—
$1,237,960
13
Rob BontaDem
—
$1,174,653
14
Antonio VillaraigosaDem
—
$1,134,975
15
Leo ZackyRep
—
$1,126,030
16
Eleni KounalakisDem
—
$1,091,711
17
Rick CarusoDem
—
$1,012,005
18
Alex PadillaDem
—
$1,006,822
19
Stephen CloobeckDem
—
$975,747
20
Ethan AgarwalDem
—
$882,909
21
Kyle LangfordRep
—
$846,498
22
Betty YeeDem
—
$827,507
23
Toni AtkinsDem
—
$746,755
24
Tony ThurmondDem
—
$695,764
25
Michael YoungerDem
—
$499,883
Implied probability: midpoint of each contract's trading range on Sep 24, 2026.
California Governor winner? (Party)
1
Republican party
4%
$1,163,470
2
Democratic party
96%
$418,510
Implied probability: midpoint of each contract's trading range on Sep 24, 2026.
California Governor primary: 1st place
1
Steve HiltonRep
$7,097,454
2
Xavier BecerraDem
$2,130,205
3
Chad BiancoRep
$847,478
4
Tom SteyerDem
$648,717
5
Katie PorterDem
$62,697
6
Matt MahanDem
$62,440
7
Eric SwalwellDem
$30,668
8
Antonio VillaraigosaDem
$12,662
California Governor primary advancers? (Person)
1
Steve HiltonRep
$2,670,562
2
Tom SteyerDem
$2,248,929
3
Chad BiancoRep
$2,112,929
4
Xavier BecerraDem
$773,321
5
Matt MahanDem
$235,573
6
Katie PorterDem
$196,597
7
Eric SwalwellDem
$121,384
8
Antonio VillaraigosaDem
$30,636
9
Rick CarusoDem
$26,009
10
Tony ThurmondDem
$17,240
11
Betty YeeDem
$14,108
12
Kamala HarrisDem
$13,405
13
Ethan Agarwal
$10,201
14
Rob BontaDem
$5,849
15
Eleni KounalakisDem
$5,718
California governor primary: top 3
1
Hilton, Becerra, Steyer
$219,729
2
Hilton, Becerra, Bianco
$204,591
3
Hilton, Bianco, Becerra
$148,984
4
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer
$130,294
5
Bianco, Becerra, Steyer
$110,379
6
Bianco, Becerra, Hilton
$107,790
7
Bianco, Steyer, Becerra
$100,706
8
Hilton, Bianco, Steyer
$99,369
9
Bianco, Hilton, Becerra
$94,905
10
Bianco, Steyer, Hilton
$89,670
11
Steyer, Becerra, Hilton
$87,317
12
Hilton, Steyer, Bianco
$86,567
13
Bianco, Hilton, Steyer
$83,827
14
Steyer, Becerra, Bianco
$81,608
15
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton
$79,564
16
Steyer, Bianco, Becerra
$75,936
17
Steyer, Hilton, Becerra
$67,510
18
Steyer, Bianco, Hilton
$64,754
19
Steyer, Hilton, Bianco
$64,543
20
Becerra, Bianco, Hilton
$61,700
21
Becerra, Steyer, Bianco
$60,133
22
Becerra, Bianco, Steyer
$53,821
23
Becerra, Hilton, Bianco
$50,074
24
Hilton, Steyer, Becerra
$47,308
California Governor matchup?
1
Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
$671,898
2
Xavier Becerra vs. Tom Steyer
$627,852
3
Steve Hilton vs. Tom Steyer
$234,807
4
Steve Hilton vs. Chad Bianco
$141,772
5
Xavier Becerra vs. Chad Bianco
$111,284
6
Steve Hilton vs. Matt Mahan
$61,206
7
Tom Steyer vs. Chad Bianco
$29,769
8
Steve Hilton vs. Katie Porter
$28,011
9
Tom Steyer vs. Matt Mahan
$26,926
10
Tom Steyer vs. Katie Porter
$23,205
11
Chad Bianco vs. Matt Mahan
$6,091
12
Xavier Becerra vs. Matt Mahan
$5,240
13
Katie Porter vs. Chad Bianco
$4,701
14
Xavier Becerra vs. Katie Porter
$3,827
15
Katie Porter vs. Matt Mahan
$3,107
16
Steve Hilton vs. Eric Swalwell
$2,585
17
Eric Swalwell vs. Chad Bianco
$115
18
Eric Swalwell vs. Matt Mahan
$109
19
Eric Swalwell vs. Katie Porter
$15
20
Eric Swalwell vs. Tom Steyer
$15
California Governor primary advancers? (Party)
1
1 Democrat and 1 Republican
$788,651
2
2 Democrats
$635,409
3
2 Republicans
$479,041
California governor primary: 2nd place
1
Xavier Becerra
$133,877
2
Steve Hilton
$87,945
3
Tom Steyer
$60,283
4
Chad Bianco
$15,782
5
Katie Porter
$5,646
6
Matt Mahan
$1,979
7
Eric Swalwell
$300
8
Ché Ahn
$267
9
Alex Padilla
$260
10
Butch Ware
$251
11
Antonio Villaraigosa
$50
California Governor primary: exact place
1
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$19,484
2
Steyer, Hilton, Bianco, Becerra, Mahan, Porter
$16,470
3
Steyer, Hilton, Bianco, Becerra, Porter, Mahan
$14,470
4
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$10,075
5
Hilton, Becerra, Steyer, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$8,243
6
Steyer, Bianco, Hilton, Becerra, Porter, Mahan
$5,734
7
Steyer, Bianco, Hilton, Becerra, Mahan, Porter
$4,144
8
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$4,066
9
Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Becerra, Mahan, Porter
$3,732
10
Hilton, Steyer, Bianco, Becerra, Porter, Mahan
$3,618
11
Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Becerra, Mahan, Porter
$3,618
12
Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Becerra, Porter, Mahan
$3,618
13
Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$1,666
14
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$1,662
15
Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Mahan, Porter
$759
16
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$683
17
Hilton, Steyer, Becerra, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$663
18
Steyer, Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$541
19
Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$464
20
Steyer, Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$382
21
Hilton, Becerra, Steyer, Bianco, Porter, Mahan
$353
22
Steyer, Becerra, Hilton, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$288
23
Hilton, Steyer, Becerra, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$276
24
Hilton, Steyer, Becerra, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$275
25
Hilton, Becerra, Steyer, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$275
26
Steyer, Becerra, Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$269
27
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$254
28
Hilton, Becerra, Steyer, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$245
29
Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Porter, Bianco, Mahan
$245
30
Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$245
31
Becerra, Hilton, Steyer, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$244
32
Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Steyer, Porter, Mahan
$135
33
Steyer, Bianco, Becerra, Hilton, Mahan, Porter
$116
34
Becerra, Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Porter, Mahan
$113
35
Becerra, Bianco, Steyer, Hilton, Porter, Mahan
$111
36
Becerra, Bianco, Steyer, Hilton, Mahan, Porter
$91
37
Steyer, Hilton, Becerra, Mahan, Bianco, Porter
$91
38
Steyer, Becerra, Bianco, Hilton, Mahan, Porter
$82
39
Becerra, Bianco, Hilton, Steyer, Mahan, Porter
$76
40
Hilton, Steyer, Becerra, Bianco, Mahan, Porter
$75
41
Hilton, Bianco, Becerra, Steyer, Porter, Mahan
$66
42
Becerra, Steyer, Bianco, Hilton, Porter, Mahan
$59
43
Steyer, Bianco, Becerra, Hilton, Porter, Mahan
$59
44
Hilton, Bianco, Becerra, Steyer, Mahan, Porter
$59
45
Hilton, Becerra, Bianco, Steyer, Mahan, Porter
$59
46
Becerra, Bianco, Hilton, Steyer, Porter, Mahan
$52
47
Becerra, Steyer, Bianco, Hilton, Mahan, Porter
$46
48
Steyer, Becerra, Bianco, Hilton, Porter, Mahan
$45
California governor primary: 3rd place
1
Tom Steyer
$35,090
2
Steve Hilton
$12,199
3
Xavier Becerra
$7,219
4
Chad Bianco
$6,354
5
Katie Porter
$3,676
6
Matt Mahan
$2,511
7
Alex Padilla
$359
8
Ché Ahn
$351
9
Butch Ware
$350
10
Antonio Villaraigosa
$213
11
Eric Swalwell
$80
California Governor primary: who will outperform the polls?
1
Tom Steyer
$4,706
2
Chad Bianco
$4,560
3
Butch Ware
$3,925
4
Steve Hilton
$3,881
5
Xavier Becerra
$2,732
6
Matt Mahan
$2,198
7
Leo Zacky
$2,016
8
Betty Yee
$1,520
9
Katie Porter
$1,168
10
Tony Thurmond
$930
11
Antonio Villaraigosa
$141
California governor primary: which candidates will win a county?
1
Chad Bianco
$8,311
2
Tom Steyer
$7,211
3
Xavier Becerra
$3,587
4
Matt Mahan
$3,396
5
Steve Hilton
$1,834
6
Katie Porter
$1,095
When will AP call the California Governor primary?
1
Before 2AM ET 6/3Settled No
$5,145
2
Before 11:05PM ET 6/2Settled No
$4,409
3
Before 3AM ET 6/3Settled No
$3,846
4
Before 1AM ET 6/3Settled No
$2,580
5
Before 10AM ET 6/3Settled No
$1,882
6
Before 12AM ET 6/3Settled No
$1,464
California Governor: which counties will Steve Hilton win?
1
Orange
$5,146
2
San Bernardino
$4,295
3
Fresno
$4,007
4
Riverside
$3,219
5
San Joaquin
$2,201
Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the 2026 California governor's race?
1
Tom Steyer
$1,642
2
Xavier Becerra
$446
3
Steve Hilton
$159
4
Matt Mahan
$54
5
Chad Bianco
$50
6
Katie Porter
$50