Kalshi

Election & Political Prediction Markets

Every serious election forecast eventually gets one question: what does the money think? This hub answers it, tracking Kalshi's election and political markets — presidential primaries, control of the House and Senate, governors' races, and federal policy fights. Each contract's price is a live, money-weighted probability that a given outcome happens, and it often moves hours before a poll or a pundit catches up. The markets below are ordered by how much capital changed hands in them over the past week, so the ranking reflects where attention and conviction actually concentrated, not an editor's read.

Top 50 Markets — Last 7 Days

1
House winner
$5.5M 2
Democratic Primary winner
$4.4M 3
Texas Senate race
$3.2M 4
Trump approval rating
$3M 5
Republican Primary winner
$2.1M 6
Senate winner
$1.6M 7
Brazil Presidency
$1.6M 8
Pres person
$1.5M 9
Special Senate election in Ohio
$1.4M 10
California Governor's race
$935.5K 11
LA
$926.2K 12
Nobel Peace Prize
$869.7K 13
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
$805.2K 14
Kansas Senate race
$802.9K 15
Maine Senate race
$741.7K 16
Iowa Senate race
$662.6K 17
Alaska Senate race
$602.6K 18
Midterm margin of victory
$507.7K 19
Michigan Senate race
$500.3K 20
South Carolina Senate race
$488.2K 21
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
$470.2K 22
Brazil Presidential election: first round winner?
$439.3K 23
Democratic Senate seats
$380K 24
House Race Winner?
$379.6K 25
Minnesota Senate race
$360.9K 26
Republican senate seats
$356.6K 27
US Iran nuclear deal
$354.5K 28
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
$313.4K 29
New Hampshire Senate race
$301.7K 30
National House popular vote margin?
$284.2K 31
Republican house seats
$279.1K 32
North Carolina Senate race
$270.9K 33
Number of Trump Truth Social posts this week?
$264.4K 34
Texas Governor
$260.8K 35
Nebraska Senate race
$248.6K 36
VoteHub GCB
$240.2K 37
Special Senate election in Florida
$226.2K 38
Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?
$215.6K 39
Will the SAVE Act become law?
$209.6K 40
New York Governor
$208.4K 41
Vermont Governor
$206.7K 42
Trump attend another UFC event this year
$172.3K 43
California Governor
$170.9K 44
Massachusetts Governor
$163.5K 45
Ohio Governor
$160K 46
Democratic House seats
$154.2K 47
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?
$149.7K 48
Vote percentages in US general elections
$141.3K 49
President RCP approval rating this week
$139.7K 50
Trump photos
$138.6K
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